Abstract
To understand the determinants of long-term immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the concurrent impact of vaccination and emerging variants, we follow a prospective cohort of 332 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) over more than a year after symptom onset. We evaluate plasma-neutralizing activity using HIV-based pseudoviruses expressing the spike of different SARS-CoV-2 variants and analyze them longitudinally using mixed-effects models. Long-term neutralizing activity is stable beyond 1 year after infection in mild/asymptomatic and hospitalized participants. However, longitudinal models suggest that hospitalized individuals generate both short- and long-lived memory B cells, while the responses of non-hospitalized individuals are dominated by long-lived B cells. In both groups, vaccination boosts responses to natural infection. Long-term (>300 days from infection) responses in unvaccinated participants show a reduced efficacy against beta, but not alpha nor delta, variants. Multivariate analysis identifies the severity of primary infection as an independent determinant of higher magnitude and lower relative cross-neutralization activity of long-term neutralizing responses.