Abstract
Aberrant activity and connectivity in default mode (DMN), frontoparietal (FPN), and salience (SN) network regions is well-documented in depression. Recent neuroimaging research suggests that altered variability in the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal may disrupt normal network integration and be an important novel predictor of psychopathology. However, no studies have yet determined the relationship between resting-state BOLD signal variability and depressive disorders nor applied BOLD signal variability features to the classification of depression history using machine learning (ML). We collected resting-state fMRI data for 79 women with different depression histories: no history, past history, and current depressive disorder. We tested voxelwise differences in BOLD signal variability related to depression group and severity. We also investigated whether BOLD signal variability of DMN, FPN, and SN regions could predict depression history group using a supervised random forest ML model. Results indicated that individuals with any history of depression had significantly decreased BOLD signal variability in the left and right cerebellum and right parietal cortex (p(FWE) <0.05). Furthermore, greater depression severity was also associated with reduced BOLD signal variability in the cerebellum. A random forest model classified participant depression history with 74% accuracy, with the ventral anterior cingulate cortex of the DMN as the most important variable in the model. These findings provide novel support for resting-state BOLD signal variability as a marker of neural dysfunction in depression and implicate decreased neural signal variability in the pathophysiology of depression.