Abstract
Optimizing the effect of management practices on weed population dynamics is challenging due to the difficulties in inferring demographic parameters in seed banks and their response to disturbance. Here, we used a long-term plant survey between 2006 and 2012 in 46 French vineyards and quantified the effects of management practices (tillage, mowing, and herbicide) on colonization, germination, and seed survival of 30 weed species in relation to their seed mass. To do so, we used a recent statistical approach to reliably estimate demographic parameters for plant populations with a seed bank using time series of presence-absence data, which we extended to account for interspecies variation in the effects of management practices on demographic parameters. Our main finding was that when the level of disturbance increased (i.e., in plots with a higher number of herbicides, tillage, or mowing treatments), colonization success and survival in large-seeded species increased faster than in small-seeded species. High disturbance through tillage increased survival in the seed bank of species with high seed mass. The application of herbicides increased germination, survival, and colonization probabilities of species with high seed mass. Mowing, representing habitats more competitive for light, increased the survival of species with high seed mass. Overall, the strong relationships between the effects of management practices and seed mass provide an indicator for predicting the dynamics of weed communities under disturbance.