Abstract
BACKGROUND: Thyroid nodules (TNs) cytologically defined as category Bethesda III and IV pose a major diagnostic challenge before surgery, demanding new methods to reduce unnecessary diagnostic thyroid lobectomies for patients with benign TNs. This study aimed to assess whether a model combining dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) quantitative parameters with morphologic features could reliably differentiate between benign and malignant lesions in Bethesda III and IV TNs. METHODS: Data from 77 patients scheduled for thyroid surgery for Bethesda III and IV TNs (malignant =48; benign =29) who underwent DECT scans were reviewed. DECT quantitative parameters including normalized iodine concentration (NIC), attenuation on the slope of spectral Hounsfield unit (HU) curve, and normalized effective atomic number (Zeff) were measured in the arterial phase (AP) and venous phase (VP). DECT quantitative parameters and morphologic features were compared between the malignant and benign cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic curve was performed to compare the performances of significant DECT quantitative parameters, morphologic features, or the models combining the DECT parameters, respectively, with morphologic features. A nomogram was constructed from the optimal performance model, and the performance was evaluated via the calibration curve and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the NIC in the AP (AP-NIC), slope of spectral HU curve in the AP, and NZeff in the AP were 0.749 (95% CI: 0.641-0.857), 0.654 (95% CI: 0.530-0.778), and 0.722 (95% CI: 0.602-0.842), respectively. The model combining AP-NIC with enhanced blurring showed the highest diagnostic performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of 0.808, 0.854, and 0.655, respectively; it was then used to construct a nomogram. The calibration curve showed that the discrepancy between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observations was less than 5%. The decision curve analysis indicated the nomogram had a positive net benefit in threshold risk ranges of 14% to 58% or 60% to 91% for malignant Bethesda III and IV TNs. CONCLUSIONS: The model combining AP-NIC with enhanced blurring could reliably differentiate between benign and malignant lesions in Bethesda III and IV TNs.