Abstract
Grazing is a major ecological driver that influences vegetation dynamics globally. We investigated the long-term effects of different grazing regimes on the vegetation structure of the Central Anatolian steppes, a region characterized by its unique convergence of biogeographical influences and historical land use. We employed the spatially explicit FATELAND model to simulate vegetation dynamics over a 50-year period under three distinct grazing scenarios: no grazing, moderate grazing, and overgrazing. Our simulations incorporated a range of plant functional traits to predict changes across five different vegetation types in Central Anatolia, including woodland steppes and treeless steppes. The simulations revealed that moderate grazing supports the diversity and abundance of various plant functional groups, excluding resprouter trees, which flourish under no grazing conditions. In contrast, overgrazing leads to significant reductions in the abundance of perennial forbs and both spiny and non-spiny subshrubs, often resulting in a shift toward grassland dominated by resprouter gramineae or an annual herb-dominated grassland, depending on the initial abundance of gramineae. Our findings highlight the critical role of grazing management in maintaining biodiversity and ecological stability in steppe ecosystems. While moderate grazing can enhance plant functional group diversity, overgrazing significantly threatens the ecological integrity of the Central Anatolian steppes. In conclusion, our modeling approach reveals that the grazing regime is a major driver in shaping the vegetation structure of Central Anatolian steppes. Grazing management strategies that are adjusted to the ecological characteristics and historical context of specific regions are required to prevent degradation and promote sustainable grassland vegetation.