Abstract
One of the major challenges in realization and implementations of the Tox21 vision is the urgent need to establish quantitative link between in-vitro assay molecular endpoint and in-vivo regulatory-relevant phenotypic toxicity endpoint. Current toxicomics approach still mostly rely on large number of redundant markers without pre-selection or ranking, therefore, selection of relevant biomarkers with minimal redundancy would reduce the number of markers to be monitored and reduce the cost, time, and complexity of the toxicity screening and risk monitoring. Here, we demonstrated that, using time series toxicomics in-vitro assay along with machine learning-based feature selection (maximum relevance and minimum redundancy (MRMR)) and classification method (support vector machine (SVM)), an "optimal" number of biomarkers with minimum redundancy can be identified for prediction of phenotypic toxicity endpoints with good accuracy. We included two case studies for in-vivo carcinogenicity and Ames genotoxicity prediction, using 20 selected chemicals including model genotoxic chemicals and negative controls, respectively. The results suggested that, employing the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept, molecular endpoints based on a relatively small number of properly selected biomarker-ensemble involved in the conserved DNA-damage and repair pathways among eukaryotes, were able to predict both Ames genotoxicity endpoints and in-vivo carcinogenicity in rats. A prediction accuracy of 76% with AUC = 0.81 was achieved while predicting in-vivo carcinogenicity with the top-ranked five biomarkers. For Ames genotoxicity prediction, the top-ranked five biomarkers were able to achieve prediction accuracy of 70% with AUC = 0.75. However, the specific biomarkers identified as the top-ranked five biomarkers are different for the two different phenotypic genotoxicity assays. The top-ranked biomarkers for the in-vivo carcinogenicity prediction mainly focused on double strand break repair and DNA recombination, whereas the selected top-ranked biomarkers for Ames genotoxicity prediction are associated with base- and nucleotide-excision repair The method developed in this study will help to fill in the knowledge gap in phenotypic anchoring and predictive toxicology, and contribute to the progress in the implementation of tox 21 vision for environmental and health applications.