Abstract
BACKGROUND: Vegetation health (VH) is a powerful characteristic for forecasting malaria incidence in regions where the disease is prevalent. This study aims to determine how vegetation health affects the prevalence of malaria and create seasonal weather forecasts using NOAA/AVHRR environmental satellite data that can be substituted for malaria epidemic forecasts. METHODS: Weekly advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data were retrieved from the NOAA satellite website from 2009 to 2021. The monthly number of malaria cases was collected from the Ministry of Health of Benin from 2009 to 2021 and matched with AVHRR data. Pearson correlation was calculated to investigate the impact of vegetation health on malaria transmission. Ordinary least squares (OLS), support vector machine (SVM) and principal component regression (PCR) were applied to forecast the monthly number of cases of malaria in Northern Benin. A random sample of proposed models was used to assess accuracy and bias. RESULTS: Estimates place the annual percentage rise in malaria cases at 9.07% over 2009-2021 period. Moisture (VCI) for weeks 19-21 predicts 75% of the number of malaria cases in the month of the start of high mosquito activities. Soil temperature (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) predicted one month earlier than the start of mosquito activities through transmission, 78% of monthly malaria incidence. CONCLUSIONS: SVM model D is more effective than OLS model A in the prediction of malaria incidence in Northern Benin. These models are a very useful tool for stakeholders looking to lessen the impact of malaria in Benin.