Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognostic value of pain in one body region on the risk for developing chronic pain in other body regions. METHODS: Prospective cohort study among 5052 Danish female health care workers responding to a baseline and follow-up questionnaire in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Using adjusted logistic regression analysis, the risk for developing chronic pain (>30 days last year) at follow-up in the low back (among those without low back pain during the last year at baseline) when experiencing sub-chronic (1-30 days last year) or chronic pain in other body regions (i.e., the neck/shoulders and/or the knees at baseline) was modelled. Similar risks were modelled for developing chronic pain in the neck/shoulders and knees. RESULTS: Chronic pain in the neck/shoulders (OR 3.14; 95% CI 1.74-5.70) or knees (OR 2.57; 95% CI 1.28-5.16) at baseline increased the risk for developing chronic pain in the low back at follow-up. Likewise, chronic pain in the neck/shoulders (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.36-4.17) or low back (OR 1.82 95%; CI 1.07-3.09) at baseline increased the risk for developing chronic pain in the knees at follow-up. The risk for developing chronic neck/shoulder pain was not significantly increased when having pain in the low back or knees at baseline. CONCLUSION: Among health care workers, chronic musculoskeletal pain in one body region increases the risk for developing chronic pain in other pain-free body regions. Prevention of musculoskeletal disorders among health care workers should focus holistically on the musculoskeletal system.