Abstract
Despite the unfolding impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological well-being, there is a lack of prospective studies that target physiological markers of distress. There is a need to examine physiological predictors from the pre-pandemic period to identify and treat individuals at-risk. In this study, our aim was to use pre-pandemic markers of autonomic nervous system (ANS) parasympathetic and sympathetic regulation to predict individuals' psychological well-being during the crisis. We also assessed the role of mood regulation expectancies as a mediator of the association between pre-pandemic physiological measures and COVID-related well-being. In May to June 2020, 185 Israeli adults completed online questionnaires assessing their mood regulation expectancies since COVID-19 began, and their current well-being. These individuals had participated in lab studies 1.5-3 years prior to this assessment, where their physiological measures were taken, including respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and skin conductance level (SCL). RSA was positively related to mood regulation expectancies during COVID-19 (b = 3.46, 95% CI [0.84, 6.05]). Mood regulation expectancies, in turn, positively predicted well-being during the crisis (b = 0.021, 95% CI [0.016, 0.027]). The mediation was significant and moderated by SCL (index = -0.09, 95% CI [-0.02, -0.0001]), such that it was strongest for individuals with low SCL. We point to pre-pandemic physiological mechanisms underlying individuals' mental well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have theoretical, diagnostic, and clinical implications that may refine our understanding of the physiological basis of resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic and thus may be implemented to identify and assist individuals in these times.