Abstract
Vertebral endplate bone marrow lesions, visualized on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as Modic changes (MC), are associated with chronic low back pain (cLBP). Since guidelines recommend against routine spinal MRI for cLBP in primary care, MC may be underdiagnosed. Serum biomarkers for MC would allow early diagnosis, inform clinical care decisions, and supplement treatment monitoring. We aimed to discover biomarkers in the blood serum that correlate with MC pathophysiological processes. For this single-site cross-sectional study, we recruited 54 subjects with 38 cLBP patients and 16 volunteers without a history of LBP. All subjects completed an Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaire and 10-cm Visual Analog Score (VAS) for LBP (VASback) and leg pain. Lumbar T1-weighted and fat-saturated T2-weighted MRI were acquired at 3T and used for MC classification in each endplate. Blood serum was collected on the day of MRI. Biomarkers related to disc resorption and bone marrow fibrosis were analyzed with enzyme-linked immune-absorbent assays. The concentration of biomarkers between no MC and any type of MC (AnyMC), MC1, and MC2 were compared. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristics were calculated for each biomarker and for bivariable biomarker models. We found that biomarkers related to type III and type IV collagen degradation and formation tended to correlate with the presence of MC (p = 0.060-0.088). The bivariable model with the highest AUC was PRO-C3 + C4M and had a moderate diagnostic value for AnyMC in cLBP patients (AUC = 0.73, specificity = 78.9%, sensitivity = 73.7%). In conclusion, serum biomarkers related to the formation and degradation of type III and type IV collagen, which are key molecules in bone marrow fibrosis, correlated with MC presence. Bone marrow fibrosis may be an important pathophysiological process in MC that should be targeted in larger biomarker and treatment studies.