On a microdemographic framework for decomposing contemporary fertility dynamics

基于微观人口统计框架的当代生育动态分解

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Abstract

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) obscures key components of fertility dynamics, leading to a calculated 49% information loss and a substantive 0·385 reduction in Adjusted R² compared to its decomposed components: the Total Maternal Rate (TMR) and Children per Mother (CPM), formalized in this study, where TFR = TMR × CPM. Further, TMR and CPM were found to be statistically independent, which is demonstrated to lead to ambiguity in the TFR, findings that carry important implications for demographic analysis and policy evaluation. Aggregated birth data from 158 million mothers in Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States were analyzed from national statistical databases(1-4), with validation and extension using data from an additional 156 million women across 29 further higher-income economies via the Human Fertility Database(5). TMR and CPM are presented as societal, period-based measures, alongside the Total Childlessness Rate (TCR), also introduced in this study, and together comprise the proposed Microdemographic Framework (MDF) to complement retrospective cohort-based approaches. Grounded in established demographic theory, the framework consolidates and clarifies underutilized indicators to enhance interpretability and analytical resolution. Performance was evaluated using entropy analysis, explanatory power modeling, and wavelet coherence testing-methods rarely applied in fertility research. The results reveal distinct and previously underrecognized patterns: CPM has remained remarkably stable in recent decades, while TMR exhibits sharp, shock-like declines-dynamics obscured by aggregate TFR. Reporting TMR, CPM, and TCR alongside TFR may enable more timely and targeted demographic decision-making, particularly in low-fertility contexts.

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