Abstract
The majority of chemicals detected via nontarget liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) in environmental samples remain unidentified, challenging the capability of existing machine learning models to pinpoint potential endocrine disruptors (EDs). Here, we predict the activity of unidentified chemicals across 12 bioassays related to EDs within the Tox21 10K dataset. Single- and multi-output models, utilizing various machine learning algorithms and molecular fingerprint features as an input, were trained for this purpose. To evaluate the models under near real-world conditions, Monte Carlo sampling was implemented for the first time. This technique enables the use of probabilistic fingerprint features derived from the experimental HRMS data with SIRIUS+CSI:FingerID as an input for models trained on true binary fingerprint features. Depending on the bioassay, the lowest false-positive rate at 90% recall ranged from 0.251 (sr.mmp, mitochondrial membrane potential) to 0.824 (nr.ar, androgen receptor), which is consistent with the trends observed in the models' performances submitted for the Tox21 Data Challenge. These findings underscore the informativeness of fingerprint features that can be compiled from HRMS in predicting the endocrine-disrupting activity. Moreover, an in-depth SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis unveiled the models' ability to pinpoint structural patterns linked to the modes of action of active chemicals. Despite the superior performance of the single-output models compared to that of the multi-output models, the latter's potential cannot be disregarded for similar tasks in the field of in silico toxicology. This study presents a significant advancement in identifying potentially toxic chemicals within complex mixtures without unambiguous identification and effectively reducing the workload for postprocessing by up to 75% in nontarget HRMS.