Abstract
This study analyzed changes in group immunity induced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and BA.1/BA.2 breakthrough infections (BIs) in a healthcare worker cohort. We investigated the longitudinal kinetics of neutralizing antibodies against circulating variants and confirmed that BA.1/BA.2 BIs enhance the magnitude and durability of cross-neutralization against BA.1 and BA.5. Correlation equations between semi-quantitative anti-spike antibody and plaque reduction neutralization test titers were deduced from the measured values using a linear regression model. Based on the equations, group immunity was estimated to last up to 11 months following the third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The estimated group immunity suggests that the augmented immunity and flattened waning slope through BI could correlate with the overall outbreak size. Our findings could provide a better understanding to establish public health strategies against future endemicity.