Abstract
Live attenuated virus vaccines have shown the greatest potential to protect against simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection, a model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Immunity against the vaccine virus is thought to mediate protection. However, it is shown computationally that the opposite might be true. According to the model, the initial growth of the challenge strain, its peak load, and its potential to be pathogenic is higher if immunity against the vaccine virus is stronger. This is because the initial growth of the challenge strain is mainly determined by virus competition rather than immune suppression. The stronger the immunity against the vaccine strain, the weaker its competitive ability relative to the challenge strain, and the lower the level of protection. If the vaccine virus does protect the host against a challenge, it is because the competitive interactions between the viruses inhibit the initial growth of the challenge strain. According to these arguments, an inverse correlation between the level of attenuation and the level of protection is expected, and this has indeed been observed in experimental data.