Abstract
Black locust is the only host of Robinia-specialist insects in Europe. However, no study to date has examined future range shifts of specialist insects, and the relative effects of host plant availability and other factors on their range shifts. Here, we characterized the future range shifts in the host and its four specialist insects and the factors contributing to changes in their ranges. We detected substantial range expansions in all target species. Climate predictors and host plant availability were expected to have the strongest effects on the range shifts in the host and its specialist insects, respectively, suggesting that the specialist insects will track the ranges of their host. Parectopa robiniella showed the largest potential and expanding ranges and should be made a priority species for controlling invasions of Robinia-specialist insects in Europe. The expanding ranges of all specialist species were largely identified in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, suggesting that these should be priority regions for mitigating their effects on ecosystems. Reducing future climate change is essential for preventing the spreading of specialist insects in Europe since specialist insects track their specialist host plants, and host range expansions are mainly driven by future climate changes.