Abstract
BACKGROUND: The RECIPE study aims to validate a risk prediction model for intrapartum caesarean delivery which has been developed by our group. The Genesis study was a prospective observational study carried out by the Perinatal Ireland Research Consortium across 7 clinical centres in Ireland between October 2012 and June 2015. Genesis investigated a range of maternal and fetal parameters in a prospective blinded study of 2336 singleton pregnancies between 39 + 0-41 + 0 weeks' gestational age. This resulted in the development of a risk prediction model for Caesarean Delivery in nulliparous women at term. The RECIPE study now proposes to provide external validation of this risk prediction tool. METHODS: In order to externally validate the model, we aim to include a centre which was not involved in the original study. We propose a trial of risk-assignment for intrapartum caesarean amongst nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy between 38 + 0 and 40 + 6 weeks' gestational age who are planning a vaginal birth. Results of the risk prediction tool will be concealed from participants and from midwives and doctors providing labour care.. Participants will be invited for an ultrasound scan and delivery details will be collated postnatally. The principal aim of this study is to externally validate the risk prediction model. This prediction model holds the potential to accurately identify nulliparous women who are likely to achieve an uncomplicated vaginal birth and those at high prospect of requiring an unplanned caesarean delivery. DISCUSSION: Validation of the Genesis prediction model would enable more accurate counselling for women in the antenatal setting regarding their own likelihood of requiring an intrapartum Caesarean section. It would also provide valuable personalised information to women about the anticipated course of their own labour. We believe that this is an issue of national relevance that will impact positively on obstetric practice, and will positively empower women to make considered, personalised choices surrounding labour and delivery.