Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine if baseline biomarkers are associated with longitudinal changes in the worsening of disc space narrowing (DSN), vertebral osteophytes (OST), and low back pain (LBP). DESIGN: Paired baseline (2003-2004) and follow-up (2006-2010) lumbar spine radiographs from the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project were graded for severity of DSN and OST. LBP severity was self-reported. Concentrations of analytes (cytokines, proteoglycans, and neuropeptides) were quantified by immunoassay. Pressure-pain threshold (PPT), a marker of sensitivity to pressure pain, was measured with a standard dolorimeter. Binary logistic regression models were used to estimate odd ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of biomarker levels with DSN, OST, or LBP. Interactions were tested between biomarker levels and the number of affected lumbar spine levels or LBP. RESULTS: We included participants (n = 723) with biospecimens, PPT, and paired lumbar spine radiographic data. Baseline Lumican, a proteoglycan reflective of extracellular matrix changes, was associated with longitudinal changes in DSN worsening (OR = 3.19 [95% CI 1.22, 8.01]). Baseline brain-derived neuropathic factor, a neuropeptide, (OR = 1.80 [95% CI 1.03, 3.16]) was associated with longitudinal changes in OST worsening, which may reflect osteoclast genesis. Baseline hyaluronic acid (OR = 1.31 [95% CI 1.01, 1.71]), indicative of systemic inflammation, and PPT (OR = 1.56 [95% CI 1.02, 2.31]) were associated with longitudinal increases in LBP severity. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that baseline biomarkers are associated with longitudinal changes occurring in structures of the lumbar spine (DSN vs OST). Markers of inflammation and perceived pressure pain sensitivity were associated with longitudinal worsening of LBP.