Nonlinear effects of the built environment on urban vitality in Jinan based on multi-source data and explainable AI

基于多源数据和可解释人工智能的济南建成环境对城市活力的非线性影响研究

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Abstract

Understanding the nonlinear relationship between the built environment and urban vitality is a key challenge in urban planning. This study proposes an integrated analytical framework: (1) Combining multi-source data with explainable AI (XGBoost-SHAP) to decode nonlinear relationships and threshold effects; (2) Using the CRITIC weighting method for the first time to construct a composite urban vitality index; (3) Establishing a two-dimensional built environment framework using Baidu heat maps, nighttime light data, POIs, and street-view imagery to integrate "objective form" and "subjective perception". The findings reveal: (1) Urban vitality shows a distinct "east-strong, west-weak" clustering pattern; (2) Objective factors dominate, especially POI blending degree, density and spatial integration, while perceptual factors exhibit limited influence; (3) Key nonlinear thresholds are identified: POI blending best promotes vitality above 1.5; density shows diminishing returns beyond 4,000 units/km(2); and openness follows an inverted U-shaped curve. This study promotes the methodology for measuring comprehensive urban vitality, enriches the dimensions of the traditional framework of built environment indicators, and provides a new analytical framework for planning in historically layered cities.

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