Abstract
BACKGROUND: Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM) is preceded by asymptomatic WM (AWM), for which the risk of progression to overt disease is not well defined. METHODS: We studied 439 patients with AWM, who were diagnosed and observed at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute between 1992 and 2014. RESULTS: During the 23-year study period, with a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 317 patients progressed to symptomatic WM (72%). Immunoglobulin M 4,500 mg/dL or greater, bone marrow lymphoplasmacytic infiltration 70% or greater, β2-microglobulin 4.0 mg/dL or greater, and albumin 3.5 g/dL or less were all identified as independent predictors of disease progression. To assess progression risk in patients with AWM, we trained and cross-validated a proportional hazards model using bone marrow infiltration, immunoglobulin M, albumin, and beta-2 microglobulin values as continuous measures. The model divided the cohort into three distinct risk groups: a high-risk group with a median time to progression (TTP) of 1.8 years, an intermediate-risk group with a median TTP of 4.8 years, and a low-risk group with a median TTP of 9.3 years. We validated this model in two external cohorts, demonstrating robustness and generalizability. For clinical applicability, we made the model available as a Web page application ( www.awmrisk.com ). By combining two cohorts, we were powered to identify wild type MYD88 as an independent predictor of progression (hazard ratio, 2.7). CONCLUSION: This classification system is positioned to inform patient monitoring and care and, for the first time to our knowledge, to identify patients with high-risk AWM who may need closer follow-up or benefit from early intervention.