Abstract
Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis are two waterborne protozoan parasites that can cause diarrhea. Human and animal feces in surface water are a major source of these pathogens. This paper presents a GloWPa-TGR-Crypto model that estimates Cryptosporidium and G. duodenalis emissions from human and animal feces in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), and uses scenario analysis to predict the effects of sanitation, urbanization, and population growth on oocyst and cyst emissions for 2050. Our model estimated annual emissions of 1.6 × 10(15) oocysts and 2.1 × 10(15) cysts from human and animal feces, respectively. Humans were the largest contributors of oocysts and cysts, followed by pigs and poultry. Cities were hot-spots for human emissions, while districts with high livestock populations accounted for the highest animal emissions. Our model was the most sensitive to oocyst excretion rates. The results indicated that 74% and 87% of total emissions came from urban areas and humans, respectively, and 86% of total human emissions were produced by the urban population. The scenario analysis showed a potential decrease in oocyst and cyst emissions with improvements in urbanization, sanitation, wastewater treatment, and manure management, regardless of population increase. Our model can further contribute to the understanding of environmental pathways, the risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia pollution, and effective prevention and control strategies that can reduce the outbreak of waterborne diseases in the TGR and other similar watersheds.