Abstract
Urban green development is critical to reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Urban green productivity substantially affects urban green development. Clarifying its development of urban green productivity and influencing factors can provide a new method for dynamically quantifying urban green development. We established a system dynamics simulation model of urban green productivity to describe the mutual feedback relationship between factors. A case study was conducted of Beijing's green productivity from 2024 to 2035 to provide insights and practical guidance to improve urban green development and formulate targeted policies. The economic development level, human capital, industrial structure adjustment, innovation level, government intervention, and environmental regulation had positive effects on Beijing's green productivity. Foreign trade openness had the smallest effect, infrastructure conditions had no significant impact, and the coordinated development of the driving factors had the largest influence on Beijing's green productivity. This study provides an empirical basis for formulating policies affecting urban green development.