Abstract
Most pest phenology models are temperature dependent. Generally, the air temperature at reference height is used to predict pest development, but the air temperature varies between inside and outside the crop canopy, where pests reside. Here, we sampled 3 rice planthopper species-Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), and Laodelphax striatellus (Fallén)-and micrometeorological observations in paddy fields to analyze how thermal environments inside the canopy affect pest development. Seasonal variations in the population density of these species were surveyed in 3 experimental fields with 2 water temperature plots (normal and low-water temperature plots). The development periods of the 3 species were predicted individually based on pest phenology models using temperatures recorded at 6 heights (0.0-2.0 m). We calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) values from the predicted and observed development periods for each rice planthopper. The development prediction using the temperature inside the canopy was more accurate than that utilizing the temperature at the reference height (2.0 m). In the low-water temperature plot, the RMSE value for N. lugens, S. furcifera, and L. striatellus was 6.4, 5.6, and 4.1 when using the temperature at the reference height (2.0 m), respectively, and 2.8, 3.8, and 2.9 when employing the temperature inside the canopy at 0.25 m, respectively. The development prediction utilizing the air temperature at the bottom (0.25 m) of canopy, where N. lugens resides, was most effective for N. lugens among the 3 species. These findings suggest the importance of utilizing microhabitat-based temperatures to predict pest development.