Abstract
BACKGROUND: Population growth at all scales and rapid rates of urbanization, particularly in the global South, are placing increasing pressure on ecosystems and their ability to provide services essential for human well-being. The spatial consideration of threats to ecosystem services related to changes in land use is necessary in order to avoid undue impacts on society due to the loss or reduced supply of ecosystem services. This study assesses the potential threats of land use change from strategic and local development proposals to ecosystem services in the city of Durban. METHODS: We analysed the spatial relationship between five categories of ecosystem service hotspots (carbon storage, water yield, sediment retention, nutrient retention and flood attenuation) and urban land use change related to selected strategic planning proposals, development proposals and sand-mining applications in Durban, South Africa (eThekwini Municipality) with a view to determining the consequences for progress towards a more sustainable development path in the city. We identified the potential levels of threat related to habitat destruction or transformation for the five categories of ecosystem services and a subset of 13 ecosystem service hotspots, using GIS spatial analysis tools. RESULTS: The results show that on average, should Durban's strategic development plans be realised, approximately 42% loss of ecosystem service hotspots is expected in the two municipal town-planning regions assessed. With respect to development applications between 2009 and 2012, approximately 36% of all environmental impact assessments and 84% of sand mining applications occurred within ecosystem service hotspots within Durban. DISCUSSION: The findings highlight the tension between short-term development pressures and longer-term sustainability goals and confirm that current planning and development proposals pose a threat to ecosystems and their ability to deliver services that support human well-being in Durban. We suggest practical solutions to include ecosystem services into local government decision-making.