Abstract
BACKGROUND: Plenty of evidence has suggested that autophagy plays a crucial role in the biological processes of cancers. This study aimed to screen autophagy-related genes (ARGs) and establish a novel a scoring system for colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Autophagy-related genes sequencing data and the corresponding clinical data of CRC in The Cancer Genome Atlas were used as training data set. The GSE39582 data set from the Gene Expression Omnibus was used as validation set. An autophagy-related signature was developed in training set using univariate Cox analysis followed by stepwise multivariate Cox analysis and assessed in the validation set. Then we analyzed the function and pathways of ARGs using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database. Finally, a prognostic nomogram combining the autophagy-related risk score and clinicopathological characteristics was developed according to multivariate Cox analysis. RESULTS: After univariate and multivariate analysis, 3 ARGs were used to construct autophagy-related signature. The KEGG pathway analyses showed several significantly enriched oncological signatures, such as p53 signaling pathway, apoptosis, human cytomegalovirus infection, platinum drug resistance, necroptosis, and ErbB signaling pathway. Patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups, and patients with high risk had significantly shorter overall survival (OS) than low-risk patients in both training set and validation set. Furthermore, the nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year OS was established based on autophagy-based risk score and clinicopathologic factors. The area under the curve and calibration curves indicated that the nomogram showed well accuracy of prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed autophagy-based signature has important prognostic value and may provide a promising tool for the development of personalized therapy.