Abstract
Acute pancreatitis is an unpredictable disease affecting the pancreas and it is characterized by a wide range of symptoms and modified lab tests, thus there is a continuing struggle to classify this disease and to find risk factors associated with a worse outcome. The main objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the fatal outcome of the intensive care unit's patients diagnosed and admitted for severe acute pancreatitis, the secondary objective was to investigate the prediction value for the death of different inflammatory markers at the time of their admission to the hospital. This retrospective study included all the patients with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of the Emergency County Hospital Timisoara between 1 January 2016 and 31 May 2021. The study included 53 patients diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis, out of which 21 (39.6%) survived and 32 (60.4%) died. For the neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio, a cut-off value of 12.4 was found. When analyzing age, we found out that age above 52 years old can predict mortality, and for the platelets/lymphocytes ratio, a cut-off value of 127 was found. Combining the three factors we get a new model for predicting mortality, with an increased performance, AUROC = 0.95, p < 0.001. Multiple persistent organ failure, age over 50, higher values of C reactive protein, and surgery were risk factors for death in the patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit. The model design from the neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio, platelets/lymphocytes ratio, and age proved to be the best in predicting mortality in severe acute pancreatitis.