Abstract
BACKGROUND: Most people with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) lack significant fibrosis and are considered low-risk. Surveillance strategy for low-risk MASLD remains uncertain. AIM: Identify which low-risk subjects can avoid follow-up vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) within 1 year. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of two independent low-risk MASLD cohorts (baseline liver stiffness [LS] < 8kPa) with routine 6-12 months follow-up VCTE. The primary outcome was LS ≥ 8kPa on follow-up, requiring referral and further work-up according to current guidance. Predictors of the primary outcome on univariate and multivariate logistic regression were incorporated into a decision algorithm, and validated in an independent cohort. RESULTS: Of 206 subjects in the derivation cohort, 96 were low-risk. After a median of 10 months, 24 (25%) low-risk subjects had LS ≥ 8kPa. Baseline LS ( P < 0.01) and ALT change from baseline ( P = 0.02) (multivariate AUROC = 0.84 [0.74-0.94]) predicted the primary outcome, and were incorporated to a two-step decision algorithm. Low-risk subjects with baseline LS < 5.5 kPa can avoid repeating VCTE in a year, while those with LS > 6.8 kPa require one. For intermediate baseline LS (5.5-6.8kPa), repeat VCTE is only indicated when ALT increase > 6 U/L. The algorithm had 92% negative predictive value, 78% specificity, and 78% accuracy in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort (n = 64), it had 91% NPV, 72% specificity, and 71% accuracy. CONCLUSION: In low-risk MASLD, a simple algorithm combining baseline LS and ALT change can be used to safely avoid a repeat VCTE in a year.