Abstract
BACKGROUND: Influenza affects approximately a billion people globally, including > 10 million Japanese individuals every year. Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir [BXM]; a selective cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor) is approved for influenza treatment in Japan. We compared the incidence of intra-familial transmission of influenza between BXM and oseltamivir (OTV) treatments using a simulation model. METHODS: Using the JMDC Claims Database, we identified index case (IC) as the first family member diagnosed with influenza during the 2018-19 influenza season, and classified the families into BXM or OTV group per the drug dispensed to ICs. Using a novel influenza intra-familial infection model, we simulated the duration of influenza infection in ICs based on agent-specific virus shedding periods. Intra-familial infections were defined as non-IC family members infected during the agent-specific viral shedding period in ICs. The virus incubation periods in the non-IC family members were considered to exclude secondary infections from potentially external exposure. The primary endpoint was proportion of families with intra-familial infections. For between-group comparisons, we used a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: The median proportion of families with intra-familial transmission was 9.57% and 19.35% in the BXM (N = 84 672) and OTV (N = 62 004) groups, respectively. The multivariate odds ratio of 1.73 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, 1.68-1.77) indicated a substantially higher incidence of intra-familial infections in the OTV group versus the BXM group. Subgroup analyses by ICs' age category, virus type, and month of onset revealed similar trends favoring BXM. CONCLUSIONS: BXM treatment of ICs may contribute to a greater reduction in intra-familial influenza transmission than OTV treatment.