Abstract
BACKGROUND: As the cardiac community strives to improve outcomes, accurate methods of risk stratification are imperative. Since adoption of International Classification of Disease-10th Revision (ICD-10) in 2015, there is no published method for congenital heart surgery risk stratification for administrative data. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to develop an empirically derived, publicly available Risk Stratification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-2) tool for ICD-10 administrative data. METHODS: The RACHS-2 stratification system was iteratively and empirically refined in a training dataset of Pediatric Health Information Systems claims to optimize sensitivity and specificity compared with corresponding locally held Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Congenital Heart Surgery (STS-CHS) clinical registry data. The tool was validated in a second administrative data source: New York State Medicaid claims. Logistic regression was used to compare the ability of RACHS-2 in administrative data to predict operative mortality vs STAT Mortality Categories in registry data. RESULTS: The RACHS-2 system captured 99.6% of total congenital heart surgery registry cases, with 1.0% false positives. RACHS-2 predicted operative mortality in both training and validation administrative datasets similarly to STAT Mortality Categories in registry data. C-statistics for models for operative mortality in training and validation administrative datasets-adjusted for RACHS-2-were 0.76 and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72-0.80 and 0.80-0.89); C-statistics for models for operative mortality-adjusted for STAT Mortality Categories-in corresponding clinical registry data were 0.75 and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.71-0.79 and 0.79-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: RACHS-2 is a risk stratification system for pediatric cardiac surgery for ICD-10 administrative data, validated in 2 administrative-registry-linked datasets. Statistical code is publicly available upon request.