Abstract
BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile systemic vasculitis of unknown etiology that occurs during early childhood, commonly involving the coronary artery, and can lead to coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs). METHODS: The demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of KD patients without coronary artery lesions (N-CAL) and with CAA were collected during 2005-2020 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. The patients were divided into the development cohort and the validation cohort. First, we compared the general information, symptoms, and laboratory data of N-CAL and CAA patients in the development cohort and the total cohort and screened out the different indices by logistic regression analysis. Then, we established three models and compared the area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to identify meaningful models for CAA, which were further verified by decision curve analysis (DCA). Second, taking into account previous reports on the importance of gender to CAA, gender stratification was conducted. RESULTS: The analysis of clinical and blood indices revealed the following novel features: (i) Many factors were found to be related to CAA, including IVIG resistance and the symptoms of rash, oral changes, and cervical lymphadenopathy. (ii) The development cohort was analyzed by logistic regression, and three models were established. The ROC curves showed that Model 2, composed of IVIG resistance, rash, oral changes, and cervical lymphadenopathy, had a better AUC value and easily to evaluate in the prediction of CAA. (iii) The selected model for predicting CAA in the development cohort was further confirmed in the validation cohort through DCAs. (iv)We further compared the items enrolled in the three models above between the N-CAL and CAA groups by sex, and the results indicated that female KD patients without rash, oral changes, and cervical lymphadenopathy were more likely to develop CAA. CONCLUSION: The absence of rash, oral changes, and cervical lymphadenopathy are risk factors for CAA, especially in female KD patients. Accurately recognizing symptoms, early diagnosis, and standard treatment for KD are key to reducing the incidence of CAA.