Abstract
Collagen in the tumor microenvironment is recognized as a potential biomarker for predicting treatment response. This study investigated whether the collagen features are associated with pathological complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and develop and validate a prediction model for individualized prediction of pCR. The prediction model was developed in a primary cohort (353 consecutive patients). In total, 142 collagen features were extracted from the multiphoton image of pretreatment biopsy, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was applied for feature selection and collagen signature building. A nomogram was developed using multivariable analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. An independent cohort (163 consecutive patients) was used to validate the model. The collagen signature comprised four collagen features significantly associated with pCR both in the primary and validation cohorts (p < 0.001). Predictors in the individualized prediction nomogram included the collagen signature and clinicopathological predictors. The nomogram showed good discrimination with area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.891 in the primary cohort and good calibration. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still gave good discrimination (AUC = 0.908) and good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. In conclusion, the collagen signature in the tumor microenvironment of pretreatment biopsy is significantly associated with pCR. The nomogram based on the collagen signature and clinicopathological predictors could be used for individualized prediction of pCR in LARC patients before nCRT.