Abstract
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the importance of Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs) instigating students to study from their homes. Every day a tremendous amount of data is generated when students interact with VLEs to perform different activities and access learning material. To make the generated data useful, it must be processed and managed by the proper machine learning (ML) algorithm. ML algorithms' applications are many folds with Education Data Mining (EDM) and Learning Analytics (LA) as their major fields. ML algorithms are commonly used to process raw data to discover hidden patterns and construct a model to make future predictions, such as predicting students' performance, dropouts, engagement, etc. However, in VLE, it is important to select the right and most applicable ML algorithm to give the best performance results. In this study, we aim to improve those ML and DL algorithms' performance that give an inferior performance in terms of performance, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Several ML algorithms were applied on Open University Learning Analytics (OULA) dataset to reveal which one offers the best results in terms of performance, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Two popular ML algorithms called Decision Tree (DT) and Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) provided unsatisfactory results. They were selected and experimented with various techniques such as grid search cross-validation, adaptive boosting, extreme gradient boosting, early stopping, feature engineering, and dropping inactive neurons to improve their performance scores. Moreover, we also determined the feature weights/importance in predicting the students' study performance, leading to the design and development of the adaptive learning system. The ML techniques and the methods used in this research study can be used by instructors/administrators to optimize learning content and provide informed guidance to students, thus improving their learning experience and making it exciting and adaptive.