Abstract
BACKGROUND: We quantified and evaluated the allocation of soil and water resources in the Aksu River Basin to measure the consequences of climate change on an agricultural irrigation system. METHODS: We first simulated future climate scenarios in the Aksu River Basin by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). We then formulated the optimal allocation scheme of agricultural water as a multiobjective optimization problem and obtained the Pareto optimal solution using the multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO). Finally, optimal allocations of water and land resources in the basin at different times were obtained using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). RESULTS: (1) The SDSM is able to simulate future climate change scenarios in the Aksu River Basin. Evapotranspiration (ET(0)) will increase significantly with variation as will the amount of available water albeit slightly. (2) To alleviate water pressure, the area of cropland should be reduced by 127.5 km(2) under RCP4.5 and 377.2 km(2) under RCP8.5 scenarios. (3) To be sustainable, the allocation ratio of forest land and water body should increase to 39% of the total water resource in the Aksu River Basin by 2050.