Abstract
Acute farmland expansion and rapid urbanization in Central Asia have accelerated land use/land cover changes, which have substantial effects on ecosystem services. However, the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Central Asia are not well understood. Here, based on land use products with 300-m resolution for the years 1995, 2005 and 2015 and transfer methodology, we predicted land use and land cover (LULC) for 2025 and 2035 using CA-Markov, assessed changes in ESVs in response to LULC dynamics, and explored the elasticity of the response of ESV to LULC changes. We found significant expansions of cropland (+22.10%) and urban areas (+322.40%) and shrinking of water bodies (-38.43%) and bare land (-9.42%) during 1995-2035. The combined value of ecosystem services of water bodies, cropland, and grassland accounted for over 90% of the total ESVs. Our study showed that cropland ecosystem services value increased by 93.45 billion US$ from 1995 to 2035, which was mainly caused by the expansion of cropland area. However, the area of water bodies decreased sharply during 1995-2035, causing a loss of 64.38 billion US$. Biodiversity, food production and water regulation were major ecosystem service functions, accounting for 80.52% of the total ESVs. Our results demonstrated that effective land-use policies should be made to control farmland expansion and protect water bodies, grassland and forestland for more sustainable ecosystem services.