Abstract
Biting midges, particularly Culicoides species, pose significant health risks to humans and animals due to their biting behavior and ability to transmit diseases. Understanding their behavior and distribution patterns is crucial for predicting and controlling the spread of viral infections. This study employs species distribution modeling to assess the environmental suitability and potential future distribution of Culicoides punctatus, a species known for causing allergic reactions in horses and acting as a vector for bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). Species occurrence records for C. punctatus were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and environmental data representing climate variables were obtained from WorldClim. The data were used to develop species distribution models and predict the potential distribution of C. punctatus in the Old World under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that C. punctatus has a wide occurrence across the Old World, with the highest number of records in Europe. The species distribution models highlight the influence of climate on the distribution of C. punctatus, suggesting that climate change could impact its range and potentially expand regions with endemic viral infections. The study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to monitor and manage the spread of viral infections associated with Culicoides midges. The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technology has facilitated high-throughput analysis techniques, eliminating the need for invasive experiments and enabling the remote assessment of species' habitats, land cover changes, and meteorology. Species distribution modeling, a powerful tool in ecological research, has been employed to predict the potential distribution of C. punctatus and assess its vulnerability to climate change. This study contributes to our understanding of the ecological implications of climate change on Culicoides midges and the associated viral infections. It provides valuable insights for designing effective management strategies, conservation efforts, and mitigation measures to minimize the impact of biting midges on human and animal health. Further research and monitoring are necessary to continuously update and refine these models in the face of changing environmental conditions.