Abstract
The T315I mutation poses a significant threat to patients with chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML). This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict the risk of T315I mutation in CP-CML patients. The training cohort included 1,466 patients from 24 hematology centers, and the validation cohort included 820 patients from an additional 20 centers. Peripheral blood blast (PBB), additional chromosomal abnormality (ACA), dasatinib use, non-EMR at 3 months, and BCR::ABL(IS) > 1% at 6 months were identified as independent risk factors through multivariate Cox regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values at 5, 10, and 15 years were 0.874, 0.925, and 0.930 for the training cohort, and 0.864, 0.814, and 0.803 for the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves for both cohorts were close to the ideal diagonal, and the decision curves indicated clinical net benefit. In conclusion, we developed a nomogram to predict the 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year T315I-free survival probabilities of CP-CML patients. This tool can aid clinicians in the early prediction and timely management of high-risk CP-CML patients with the T315I mutation.