Abstract
BACKGROUND: Higher body mass index (BMI) and circulating estrogen levels each increase postmenopausal breast cancer risk, particularly estrogen receptor-positive (ER(+)) tumors. Higher BMI also increases estrogen production. METHODS: We estimated the proportion of the BMI-ER(+) breast cancer association mediated through estrogen in a case-control study nested within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Participants included 143 women with invasive ER(+) breast cancer and 268 matched controls, all postmenopausal and never having used hormone therapy at baseline. We used liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to measure 15 estrogens and estrogen metabolites in baseline serum. We calculated BMI from self-reported height and weight at baseline. We estimated the mediating effect of unconjugated estradiol on the BMI-ER(+) breast cancer association using Aalen additive hazards and Cox regression models. RESULTS: All estrogens and estrogen metabolites were statistically significantly correlated with BMI, with unconjugated estradiol most strongly correlated [Pearson correlation (r) = 0.45]. Approximately 7% to 10% of the effect of overweight, 12% to 15% of the effect of obesity, and 19% to 20% of the effect of a 5 kg/m(2) BMI increase on ER(+) breast cancer risk was mediated through unconjugated estradiol. The BMI-breast cancer association, once adjusted for unconjugated estradiol, was not modified by further adjustment for two metabolic ratios statistically significantly associated with both breast cancer and BMI. CONCLUSION: Circulating unconjugated estradiol levels partially mediate the BMI-breast cancer association, but other potentially important estrogen mediators (e.g., bioavailable estradiol) were not evaluated. IMPACT: Further research is required to identify mechanisms underlying the BMI-breast cancer association.