Abstract
The role of NETs and platelet activation in COVID-19 is scarcely known. We aimed to evaluate the role of NETs (citrullinated histone H3 [CitH3], cell-free DNA [cfDNA]) and platelet activation markers (soluble CD40 ligand [CD40L] and P-selectin) in estimating the hazard of different clinical trajectories in patients with COVID-19. We performed a prospective study of 204 patients, categorized as outpatient, hospitalized and ICU-admitted. A multistate model was designed to estimate probabilities of clinical transitions across varying states, such as emergency department (ED) visit, discharge (outpatient), ward admission, ICU admission and death. Levels of cfDNA, CitH3 and P-selectin were associated with the severity of presentation and analytical parameters. The model showed an increased risk of higher levels of CitH3 and P-selectin for ED-to-ICU transitions (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.35 and 1.31, respectively), as well as an elevated risk of higher levels of P-selectin for ward-to-death transitions (HR: 1.09). Elevated levels of CitH3 (HR: 0.90), cfDNA (HR: 0.84) and P-selectin (HR: 0.91) decreased the probability of ward-to-discharge transitions. A similar trend existed for elevated levels of P-selectin and ICU-to-ward transitions (HR 0.40); In conclusion, increased NET and P-selectin levels are associated with more severe episodes and can prove useful in estimating different clinical trajectories.