Abstract
BACKGROUND: After the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, Medicare will be able to negotiate drug prices starting in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the total savings achieved each year for negotiation but has not publicly identified the drugs anticipated to be negotiated each year. OBJECTIVE: To identify the drugs expected to be negotiated by Medicare in 2026-2028. METHODS: We identify drugs expected to be negotiated by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in 2026-2028 based on the statutory criteria, Part B and Part D gross spending in 2020, and estimates of when a drug will be subject to generic or biosimilar competition. We also identify the reasons why other high-spend drugs will be ineligible for negotiation. RESULTS: In 2026-2028, we estimate that Medicare will negotiate prices for 38 Medicare Part D drugs and 2 Part B drugs. Combined, the 40 products eligible for negotiation in 2026-2028 accounted for $67.4 billion in gross Medicare spending in 2020. Part D drugs eligible for negotiation in 2026-2028 include 7 inhalers, 8 antidiabetics, 5 kinase inhibitors, and 3 oral anticoagulants. In all but 5 cases, high-spend drugs ineligible for negotiation were disqualified because of generic or biosimilar competition. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare drug price negotiation has the potential to benefit Medicare beneficiaries across some of the most common disease states. By generating the list of drugs likely subject to Medicare negotiation in the initial years, we hope to provider researchers, policymakers, prescribers, and patient advocates with expectations on which drugs are expected to see reductions in beneficiary cost sharing. DISCLOSURES: This work was funded by the West Health Policy Center. Dr Hernandez reports consulting fees from Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb, outside of the submitted work.