Abstract
BACKGROUND: Annual Chinese National negotiations for including innovative drugs in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) reveal an increasing number of new drugs with overlapping action mechanisms of action and similar indications. Yet, it is unclear if competition affects reimbursement decisions. Thus, we explored the impact of competition on reimbursement decisions for cancer drugs in China. METHODS: We identified the cancer drugs involved in NRDL negotiations from 2017 to 2022 and focused on the initial reimbursement decision for eligible newly negotiated drugs. Drugs were classified as within-class competitors based on their equivalent biological mechanisms of action and approved indications, including identified and potential competitors. Other variables included drug type, clinical benefit and safety, monthly drug cost, and disease incidence rate. We employed traditional univariate and multivariate Firth's penalized logistic regression to assess the association between reimbursement decisions and variables at the indication and drug levels. FINDINGS: Between 2017 and 2022, 102 cancer drugs corresponding to 141 indications were studied, and 66 drugs (64.7%) covering 95 indications (67.4%) were added to the NRDL. The proportion of reimbursements for indications with identified competition was significantly higher than that for indications without identified competition (84.6% vs 52.6%, p < 0.0001). However, the difference in reimbursement proportions between groups with and without potential competition was not statistically significant (66.7% vs 68.3%, p = 0.84). Firth's penalized logistic regression showed that identified competition was positively correlated with successful NRDL inclusion, whereas potential competition had no significant effect on negotiation outcomes. Improved overall survival or progression-free survival were positively associated with NRDL inclusion, whereas disease incidence negatively impacted reimbursement decisions. INTERPRETATION: Improved clinical benefit and identified competition were positively correlated with NRDL inclusion. In China's value-based negotiation model, clinical benefits served as a crucial foundation of price negotiation for cancer drugs, and market competition helped these drugs enter the NRDL at more reasonable prices. This has important implications for reimbursement decisions and accessibility and affordability improvement for innovative drugs worldwide. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72104151).