Abstract
BACKGROUND: Microsatellite instability (MSI) is associated with treatment response and prognosis in patients with rectal cancer (RC). However, intratumoral heterogeneity limits MSI testing in patients with RC. The authors developed a subregion radiomics model based on multiparametric MRI to preoperatively assess high-risk subregions with MSI and predict the MSI status of patients with RC. METHODS: This retrospective study included 475 patients (training cohort, 382; external test cohort, 93) with RC from two participating hospitals between April 2017 and June 2023. In the training cohort, subregion radiomic features were extracted from multiparametric MRI, which included T2-weighted, T1-weighted, diffusion-weighted, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging. MSI-related subregion radiomic features, classical radiomic features, and clinicoradiological variables were gathered to build five predictive models using logistic regression. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic information. RESULTS: Among the 475 patients [median age, 64 years (interquartile range, IQR: 55-70 years); 304 men and 171 women], the prevalence of MSI was 11.16% (53/475). The subregion radiomics model outperformed the classical radiomics and clinicoradiological models in both training [area under the curve (AUC)=0.86, 0.72, and 0.59, respectively] and external test cohorts (AUC=0.83, 0.73, and 0.62, respectively). The subregion-clinicoradiological model combining clinicoradiological variables and subregion radiomic features performed the optimal, with AUCs of 0.87 and 0.85 in the training and external test cohorts, respectively. The 3-year disease-free survival rate of MSI groups predicted based on the model was higher than that of the predicted microsatellite stability groups in both patient cohorts (training, P =0.032; external test, P =0.046). CONCLUSIONS: The authors developed and validated a model based on subregion radiomic features of multiparametric MRI to evaluate high-risk subregions with MSI and predict the MSI status of RC preoperatively, which may assist in individualized treatment decisions and positioning for biopsy.