Abstract
We aimed to develop and validate a deep learning-based system using pre-therapy computed tomography (CT) images to detect epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant status in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and predict the prognosis of advanced-stage patients with EGFR mutations treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). This retrospective, multicenter study included 485 patients with NSCLC from four hospitals. Of them, 339 patients from three centers were included in the training dataset to develop an EfficientNetV2-L-based model (EME) for predicting EGFR-mutant status, and the remaining patients were assigned to an independent test dataset. EME semantic features were extracted to construct an EME-prognostic model to stratify the prognosis of EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving EGFR-TKI. A comparison of EME and radiomics was conducted. Additionally, we included patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas lung adenocarcinoma dataset with both CT images and RNA sequencing data to explore the biological associations between EME score and EGFR-related biological processes. EME obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.907 (95% CI 0.840-0.926) on the test dataset, superior to the radiomics model (P = 0.007). The EME and radiomics fusion model showed better (AUC, 0.941) but not significantly increased performance (P = 0.895) compared with EME. In prognostic stratification, the EME-prognostic model achieved the best performance (C-index, 0.711). Moreover, the EME-prognostic score showed strong associations with biological pathways related to EGFR expression and EGFR-TKI efficacy. EME demonstrated a non-invasive and biologically interpretable approach to predict EGFR status, stratify survival prognosis, and correlate biological pathways in patients with NSCLC.