Abstract
PURPOSE: To evaluate the potential application of radiomics in predicting Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage in patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: This retrospective study included 122 consecutive patients (mean age, 57 years; 27 women). Corresponding tumor of interest was identified on axial arterial-phase CT images with manual annotation. Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions. Features were pruned to train LASSO regression model with 93 patients to construct a radiomics signature, whose performance was validated in a test set of 29 patients. Prognostic value of radiomics-predicted TNM stage was estimated by survival analysis in the entire cohort. RESULTS: The radiomics signature incorporating one intratumoral and four peritumoral features was significantly associated with TNM stage. This signature discriminated tumor stage with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.823 in the training set, with similar performance in the test set (AUC 0.813). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was significantly different between different radiomics-predicted TNM stage groups (Low-risk vs high-risk, log-rank P = 0.004). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that radiomics-predicted TNM stage was an independent preoperative factor for RFS. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed radiomics signature combing intratumoral and peritumoral features was predictive of TNM stage and associated with prognostication in ESCC.