Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Migrant workers constitute a significant portion of China's workforce, and their health directly affects labor supply and economic stability. Health vulnerability plays a crucial role in shaping the well-being of migrant workers, yet its determinants, particularly the impact of temperature change, remain underexplored. This study, based on the socio-ecological model, investigates how temperature variations influence the health vulnerability of migrant workers in China. METHODS: Using data from 2020, this study quantifies health vulnerability and examines the impact of temperature fluctuations across different seasons. Robustness checks, including dependent variable substitutions and model modifications, ensure the reliability of the findings. Furthermore, a mechanism analysis is conducted to explore the underlying pathways through which temperature change affects health vulnerability. RESULTS: The findings reveal that rising temperatures in spring, summer, and winter significantly exacerbate the health vulnerability of migrant workers, while increasing autumn temperatures mitigate it. Mechanism analysis identifies heightened psychological burden as a key channel through which temperature change worsens health vulnerability. Additionally, generational differences emerge: older migrant workers are more adversely affected by elevated spring temperatures, whereas younger workers exhibit greater sensitivity to rising summer temperatures. DISCUSSION: These results underscore the necessity of targeted health interventions and adaptive labor protection policies. By highlighting the seasonal and generational disparities in the effects of temperature change, this study offers theoretical and empirical support for enhancing the resilience of migrant workers to climate variations. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing strategies to safeguard the health and stability of the migrant workforce.