Abstract
BACKGROUND: Effective preventive interventions for PTSD rely on early identification of individuals at risk for developing PTSD. To establish early post-trauma who are at risk, there is a need for accurate prognostic risk screening instruments for PTSD that can be widely implemented in recently trauma-exposed adults. Achieving such accuracy and generalizability requires external validation of machine learning classification models. The current 2-ASAP cohort study will perform external validation on both full and minimal feature sets of supervised machine learning classification models assessing individual risk to follow an adverse PTSD symptom trajectory over the course of 1 year. We will derive these models from the TraumaTIPS cohort, separately for men and women. METHOD: The 2-ASAP longitudinal cohort will include N = 863 adults (N = 436 females, N = 427 males) who were recently exposed to acute civilian trauma. We will include civilian victims of accidents, crime and calamities at Victim Support Netherlands; and who were presented for medical evaluation of (suspected) traumatic injuries by emergency transportation to the emergency department. The baseline assessment within 2 months post-trauma will include self-report questionnaires on demographic, medical and traumatic event characteristics; potential risk and protective factors for PTSD; PTSD symptom severity and other adverse outcomes; and current best-practice PTSD screening instruments. Participants will be followed at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-trauma, assessing PTSD symptom severity and other adverse outcomes via self-report questionnaires. DISCUSSION: The ultimate goal of our study is to improve accurate screening and prevention for PTSD in recently trauma-exposed civilians. To enable future large-scale implementation, we will use self-report data to inform the prognostic models; and we will derive a minimal feature set of the classification models. This can be transformed into a short online screening instrument that is user-friendly for recently trauma-exposed adults to fill in. The eventual short online screening instrument will classify early post-trauma which adults are at risk for developing PTSD. Those at risk can be targeted and may subsequently benefit from preventive interventions, aiming to reduce PTSD and relatedly improve psychological, functional and economic outcomes.