Abstract
BACKGROUND: Though lifetime exposure to traumatic events is significant, only a minority of individuals develops symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Post-trauma alterations in neurocognitive and affective functioning are likely to reflect changes in underlying brain networks that are predictive of PTSD. These constructs are assumed to interact in a highly complex way. The aim of this exploratory study was to apply machine learning models to investigate the contribution of these interactions on PTSD symptom development and identify measures indicative of circuit related dysfunction. METHODS: N = 94 participants admitted to the emergency room of an inner-city hospital after trauma exposure completed a battery of neurocognitive and emotional tests 1 month after the incident. Different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict PTSD symptom severity and clusters after 3 months based. RESULTS: Overall, model accuracy did not differ between PTSD clusters, though the importance of cognitive and emotional domains demonstrated both key differences and overlap. Alterations in higher-order executive functioning, speed of information processing, and processing of emotionally incongruent cues were the most important predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven approaches are a powerful tool to investigate complex interactions and can enhance the mechanistic understanding of PTSD. The study identifies important relationships between cognitive processing and emotion recognition that may be valuable to predict and understand mechanisms of risk and resilience responses to trauma prospectively.