Abstract
Climate change threatens endemic island ectothermic reptiles that display small population sizes and temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Studies of captive Galapagos tortoises demonstrate type A TSD with warmer incubation temperatures producing females. However, there are few published data from free-living Galapagos tortoises on incubation temperature regimes, and none on hatchling sex ratios in the wild or the potential impacts of climate change on future sex ratios. We sought to address these deficits by quantifying incubation temperatures of nests and sex ratios of juvenile tortoises along an elevation gradient on Santa Cruz Island. We focused on three geographically separated nesting zones with mean elevations of 14 m (lower), 57 m (middle), and 107 m (upper) above sea level. Nest temperatures in 54 nests distributed across the three nesting zones were measured every 4 h throughout the incubation period using iButton thermochrons. We used coelioscopy to conduct visual exams of gonads to determine the sex of 40 juvenile tortoises from the three nesting zones. During the middle trimester of incubation, the period during which sex is determined in turtles, mean nest temperatures were 25.75°C (SD = 1.08) in the upper zone, and 27.02°C (SD = 1.09), and 27.09°C (SD = 0.85) in the middle and lower zones, respectively. The proportion of juveniles that was male increased from 11.1% in the lower zone and 9.5% in the middle zone, to 80% in the upper zone. A ca. 50 m increase in elevation induced a decrease of >1.25°C in mean nest temperature during the second trimester of incubation. Over the same elevation change, the proportion of males in the juvenile tortoise population increased by ca. 70%. Temperatures on Galapagos are predicted to increase by 1-4°C over the next 50 years, which is likely to increase the frequency of female tortoises across the archipelago.