Abstract
Several early childhood obesity prediction models have been developed, but none for New Zealand's diverse population. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting obesity in 4-5-year-old New Zealand children, using parental and infant data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) cohort. Obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI) for age and sex ≥ 95th percentile. Data on GUiNZ children were used for derivation (n = 1731) and internal validation (n = 713). External validation was performed using data from the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy Study (POI, n = 383) and Pacific Islands Families Study (PIF, n = 135) cohorts. The final model included: birth weight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, paternal BMI, and infant weight gain. Discrimination accuracy was adequate [AUROC = 0.74 (0.71-0.77)], remained so when validated internally [AUROC = 0.73 (0.68-0.78)] and externally on PIF [AUROC = 0.74 [0.66-0.82)] and POI [AUROC = 0.80 (0.71-0.90)]. Positive predictive values were variable but low across the risk threshold range (GUiNZ derivation 19-54%; GUiNZ validation 19-48%; and POI 8-24%), although more consistent in the PIF cohort (52-61%), all indicating high rates of false positives. Although this early childhood obesity prediction model could inform early obesity prevention, high rates of false positives might create unwarranted anxiety for families.