Abstract
The prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity is increasing. This study aimed to examine trajectories of BMI z-scores among Chinese children and the potential determinants including early individual, family and community factors. Group-based trajectory modeling was employed to identify BMI z-scores trajectories of children aged 2-18 years using the five waves data (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018) of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to determine the association between early individual, family, community factors and BMI z-scores trajectories of children. We identified three trajectories for boys and girls, named Class 1 as "not-overweight", Class 2 as "persistent rapid descending but overweight during pre-school age", and Class 3 as "rapid rising up to school age and then become-overweight" class. Macrosomia (OR 1.772; 95% CI 1.188-2.644) and being a single child (OR 2.038; 95% CI 1.453-2.859) were more likely to belong in Class 3 among boys. Girls living in the advantaged communities (OR 1.539; 95% CI 1.052-2.252), rural-living (OR 1.558; 95% CI 1.133-2.142) and with none social integration (OR 1.496; 95% CI 1.07-2.091) were more likely to belong in Class 2. There are heterogeneous BMI z-scores trajectories of children aged 2-18, and pre-school age is a critical window that could predict the long-term growth patterns. BMI z-scores trends need to be monitored during pre-school age, focusing on those at higher risk of later overweight obesity status, and targeted interventions at the early individual, family, community levels are essential.