Abstract
Associations between delirium and postoperative adverse events in cardiovascular surgery have been reported and the preoperative identification of high-risk patients of delirium is needed to implement focused interventions. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to predict post-cardiovascular surgery delirium. Patients aged ≥ 40 years who underwent cardiovascular surgery at a single hospital were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative and intraoperative factors were assessed. Each patient was evaluated for postoperative delirium 7 days after surgery. We developed machine learning models using the Bernoulli naive Bayes, Support vector machine, Random forest, Extra-trees, and XGBoost algorithms. Stratified fivefold cross-validation was performed for each developed model. Of the 87 patients, 24 (27.6%) developed postoperative delirium. Age, use of psychotropic drugs, cognitive function (Mini-Cog < 4), index of activities of daily living (Barthel Index < 100), history of stroke or cerebral hemorrhage, and eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) < 60 were selected to develop delirium prediction models. The Extra-trees model had the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.76 [standard deviation 0.11]; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.78). XGBoost showed the highest sensitivity (AUROC, 0.75 [0.07]; sensitivity: 0.67; specificity: 0.79). Machine learning algorithms could predict post-cardiovascular delirium using preoperative data.Trial registration: UMIN-CTR (ID; UMIN000049390).