Abstract
The reconstruction of geographic and demographic scenarios of dissemination for invasive pathogens of crops is a key step toward improving the management of emerging infectious diseases. Nowadays, the reconstruction of biological invasions typically uses the information of both genetic and historical information to test for different hypotheses of colonization. The Approximate Bayesian Computation framework and its recent Random Forest development (ABC-RF) have been successfully used in evolutionary biology to decipher multiple histories of biological invasions. Yet, for some organisms, typically plant pathogens, historical data may not be reliable notably because of the difficulty to identify the organism and the delay between the introduction and the first mention. We investigated the history of the invasion of Africa by the fungal pathogen of banana Pseudocercospora fijiensis, by testing the historical hypothesis against other plausible hypotheses. We analyzed the genetic structure of eight populations from six eastern and western African countries, using 20 microsatellite markers and tested competing scenarios of population foundation using the ABC-RF methodology. We do find evidence for an invasion front consistent with the historical hypothesis, but also for the existence of another front never mentioned in historical records. We question the historical introduction point of the disease on the continent. Crucially, our results illustrate that even if ABC-RF inferences may sometimes fail to infer a single, well-supported scenario of invasion, they can be helpful in rejecting unlikely scenarios, which can prove much useful to shed light on disease dissemination routes.